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undesirable from the point of view of almost everybody in Russia。
Collapse of the present Government would mean at best a reproduction of
the circumstances of 1917； with the difference that no intervention from
without would be necessary to stimulate indiscriminate slaughter within。
I say 〃at best〃 because I think it more likely that collapse would be
followed by a period of actual chaos。 Any Government that followed the
Communists would be faced by the same economic problem； and would
have to choose between imposing measures very like those of the
Communists and allowing Russia to subside into a new area for
colonization。 There are people who look upon this as a natural； even a
desirable； result of the revolution。 They forget that the Russians have
never been a subject race； that they have immense powers of passive
resistance； that they respond very readily to any idea that they understand；
and that the idea of revolt against foreigners is difficult not to understand。
Any country that takes advantage of the Russian people in a moment of
helplessness will find； sooner or later； first that it has united Russia against
it； and secondly that it has given all Russians a single and undesirable
view of the history of the last three years。 There will not be a Russian
who will not believe that the artificial incubation of
civil war within the frontiers of old Russia was not deliberately
undertaken by Western Europe with the object of so far weakening Russia
as to make her exploitation easy。 Those who look with equanimity even on
this prospect forget that the creation in Europe of a new area for
colonization； a knocking out of one of the sovereign nations； will create a
vacuum； and that the effort to fill this vacuum will set at loggerheads
nations at present friendly and so produce a struggle which may well do
for Western Europe what Western Europe will have done for Russia。
It is of course possible that in some such way the Russian Revolution
may prove to be no more than the last desperate gesture of a stricken
civilization。 My point is that if that is so； civilization in Russia will not
die without infecting us with its disease。 It seems to me that our own
civilization is ill already； slightly demented perhaps； and liable； like a man
in delirium； to do things which tend to aggravate the malady。 I think that
the whole of the Russian war； waged directly or indirectly by Western
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Europe； is an example of this sort of dementia； but I cannot help believing
that sanity will reassert itself in time。 At the present moment； to use a
modification of Gusev's metaphor； Europe may be compared to a burning
house and the Governments of Europe to fire brigades； each one engaged
in trying to salve a wing or a room of the building。 It seems a pity that
these fire brigades should be fighting each other； and forgetting the fire in
their resentment of the fact that some of them wear red uniforms and some
wear blue。 Any single room to which the fire gains complete control
increases the danger of the whole building； and I hope that before the roof
falls in the firemen will come to their senses。
But turning from grim recognition of the danger； and from
speculations as to the chance of the Russian Government collapsing； and
as to the changes in it that time may bring； let us consider what is likely to
happen supposing it does not collapse。 I have already said that I think
collapse unlikely。 Do the Russians show any signs of being able to carry
out their programme； or has the fire gone so far during the quarrelling of
the firemen as to make that task impossible？
I think that there is still a hope。 There is as yet no sign of a general
improvement in Russia； nor is such an improvement possible until the
Russians have at least carried out the first stage of their programme。 It
would even not be surprising if things in general were to continue to go to
the bad during the carrying out of that first stage。 Shortages of food； of
men； of tools； of materials； are so acute that they have had to choose those
factories which are absolutely indispensable for the carrying out of this
stage； and make of them 〃shock〃 factories； like the 〃shock〃 troops of the
war； giving them equipment over and above their rightful share of the
impoverished stock； feeding their workmen even at the cost of letting
others go hungry。 That means that other factories suffer。 No matter； say
the Russians； if only that first stage makes progress。 Consequently； the
only test that can be fairly applied is that of transport。 Are they or are
they not gaining on ruin in the matter of wagons and engines！ Here are the
figures of wagon repairs in the seven chief repairing shops up to the month
of June：
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THE CRISIS IN RUSSIA
December 1919。。。。。。。。。。。。475 wagons were repaired。 January
1920。。。。。。。。。。。。。656 February。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。697 March。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。1104
April。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。1141 May。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。1154 June。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。1161
After elaborate investigation last year； Trotsky； as temporary
Commissar of Transport； put out an order explaining that the railways； to
keep up their present condition； must repair roughly 800 engines every
month。 During the first six months of 1920 they fulfilled this task in the
following percentages：
January。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。32 per cent February。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。50
March。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。66
April。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。78 May。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。98 June。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。104
I think that is a proof that； supposing normal relations existed
between Russia and ourselves； the Russian would be able to tackle the first
stage of the problem that lies before them； and would lie before them
whatever their Government might be。 Unfortunately there is no proof
that this steady improvement can be continued； except under conditions of
trade with Western Europe。 There are Russians who think they can pull
through without us； and； remembering the miracles of which man is
capable when his back is to the wall； it would be rash to say that this is
impossible。 But other Russians point out gloomily that they have been
using certain parts taken from dead engines （engines past repair） in order
to mend sick engines。 They are now coming to the mending； not of sick
engines merely； but of engines on which post…mortems have already been
held。 They are actually mending engines； parts of which have already
been taken out and used for the mending of other engines。 There are
consequently abnormal demands for such things as shafts and piston rings。
They are particularly short of Babbitt metal and boiler tubes。 In normal
times the average number of new tubes wanted for each engine put
through the repair shops was 25 （10 to 15 for engines used in the more
northerly districts； and 30 to 40 for engines in the south where the water is
not so good）。 This number must now be taken as much higher； because
during recent years tubes have not been regularly renewed。 Further； the
railways have been widely making use of tubes taken from dead engines；
that is to say； tubes already worn。 Putting things at their very best；
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assuming that the average demand for tubes per engine will be that of
normal times； then； if 1；000 engines are to be repaired monthly； 150；000
tubes will be wanted every six months。 N