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4。 The conception of the history of man as a causal development meant the elevation of historical inquiry to the dignity of a science。 Just as the study of bees cannot become scientific so long as the student's interest in them is only to procure honey or to derive moral lessons from the labours of 〃the little busy bee；〃 so the history of human societies cannot become the object of pure scientific investigation so long as man estimates its value in pragmatical scales。 Nor can it become a science until it is conceived as lying entirely within a sphere in which the law of cause and effect has unreserved and unrestricted dominion。 On the other hand； once history is envisaged as a causal process； which contains within itself the explanation of the development of man from his primitive state to the point which he has reached； such a process necessarily becomes the object of scientific investigation and the interest in it is scientific curiosity。
At the same time； the instruments were sharpened and refined。 Here Wolf； a philologist with historical instinct； was a pioneer。 His 〃Prolegomena〃 to Homer （1795） announced new modes of attack。 Historical investigation was soon transformed by the elaboration of new methods。
5。 〃Progress〃 involves a judgment of value； which is not involved in the conception of history as a genetic process。 It is also an idea distinct from that of evolution。 Nevertheless it is closely related to the ideas which revolutionised history at the beginning of the last century； it swam into men's ken simultaneously； and it helped effectively to establish the notion of history as a continuous process and to emphasise the significance of time。 Passing over earlier anticipations； I may point to a 〃Discours〃 of Turgot （1750）； where history is presented as a process in which 〃the total mass of the human race〃 〃marches continually though sometimes slowly to an ever increasing perfection。〃 That is a clear statement of the conception which Turgot's friend Condorcet elaborated in the famous work； published in 1795； 〃Esquisse d'un tableau historique des progres de l'esprit humain〃。 This work first treated with explicit fulness the idea to which a leading role was to fall in the ideology of the nineteenth century。 Condorcet's book reflects the triumphs of the Tiers etat； whose growing importance had also inspired Turgot； it was the political changes in the eighteenth century which led to the doctrine； emphatically formulated by Condorcet； that the masses are the most important element in the historical process。 I dwell on this because； though Condorcet had no idea of evolution； the pre…dominant importance of the masses was the assumption which made it possible to apply evolutional principles to history。 And it enabled Condorcet himself to maintain that the history of civilisation； a progress still far from being complete； was a development conditioned by general laws。
6。 The assimilation of society to an organism； which was a governing notion in the school of Savigny； and the conception of progress； combined to produce the idea of an organic development； in which the historian has to determine the central principle or leading character。 This is illustrated by the apotheosis of democracy in Tocqueville's 〃Democratie en Amerique〃； where the theory is maintained that 〃the gradual and progressive development of equality is at once the past and the future of the history of men。〃 The same two principles are combined in the doctrine of Spencer （who held that society is an organism； though he also contemplated its being what he calls a 〃super…organic aggregate〃） （A society presents suggestive analogies with an organism； but it certainly is not an organism； and sociologists who draw inferences from the assumption of its organic nature must fall into error。 A vital organism and a society are radically distinguished by the fact that the individual components of the former； namely the cells； are morphologically as well as functionally differentiated； whereas the individuals which compose a society are morphologically homogeneous and only functionally differentiated。 The resemblances and the differences are worked out in E。 de Majewski's striking book 〃La Science de la Civilisation〃； Paris； 1908。）； that social evolution is a progressive change from militarism to industrialism。
7。 the idea of development assumed another form in the speculations of German idealism。 Hegel conceived the successive periods of history as corresponding to the ascending phases or ideas in the self…evolution of his Absolute Being。 His 〃Lectures on the Philosophy of History〃 were published in 1837 after his death。 His philosophy had a considerable effect； direct and indirect； on the treatment of history by historians； and although he was superficial and unscientific himself in dealing with historical phenomena； he contributed much towards making the idea of historical development familiar。 Ranke was influenced； if not by Hegel himself； at least by the Idealistic philosophies of which Hegel's was the greatest。 He was inclined to conceive the stages in the process of history as marked by incarnations； as it were； of ideas； and sometimes speaks as if the ideas were independent forces； with hands and feet。 But while Hegel determined his ideas by a priori logic； Ranke obtained his by inductionby a strict investigation of the phenomena； so that he was scientific in his method and work； and was influenced by Hegelian prepossessions only in the kind of significance which he was disposed to ascribe to his results。 It is to be noted that the theory of Hegel implied a judgment of value； the movement was a progress towards perfection。
8。 In France； Comte approached the subject from a different side； and exercised； outside Germany； a far wider influence than Hegel。 The 4th volume of his 〃Cours de philosophie positive〃； which appeared in 1839； created sociology and treated history as a part of this new science； namely as 〃social dynamics。〃 Comte sought the key for unfolding historical development； in what he called the social…psychological point of view； and he worked out the two ideas which had been enunciated by Condorcet： that the historian's attention should be directed not； as hitherto； principally to eminent individuals； but to the collective behaviour of the masses； as being the most important element in the process； and that； as in nature； so in history； there are general laws； necessary and constant； which condition the development。 The two points are intimately connected； for it is only when the masses are moved into the foreground that regularity； uniformity； and law can be conceived as applicable。 To determine the social… psychological laws which have controlled the development is； according to Comte； the task of sociologists and historians。
9。 The hypothesis of general laws operative in history was carried further in a book which appeared in England twenty years later and exercised an influence in Europe far beyond its intrinsic merit； Buckle's 〃History of Civilisation in England〃 （1857…61）。 Buckle owed much to Comte； and followed him； or rather outdid him； in regarding intellect as the most important factor conditioning the upward development of man； so that progress； according to him； consisted in the victory of the intellectual over the moral laws。
10。 The tendency of Comte and Buckle to assimilate history to the sciences of nature by reducing it to general 〃laws；〃 derived stimulus and plausibility from the vista offered by the study of statistics； in which the Belgian Quetelet； whose book 〃Sur l'homme〃 appeared in 1835； discerned endless possibilities。 The astonishing uniformities which statistical inquiry disclosed led to the belief that it was only a question of collecting a sufficient amount of statistical material； to enable us to predict how a given social group will act in a particular case。 Bourdeau； a disciple of this school； looks forward to the time when historical science will become entirely quantitative。 The actions of prominent individuals； which are generally considered to have altered or determined the course of things； are obviously not amenable to statistical computation or explicable by general laws。 Thinkers like Buckle sought to minimise their importance or explain them away。
11。 These indications may suffice to show that the new efforts to interpret history which marked the first half of the nineteenth century were governed by conceptions closely related to those which were current in the field of natural science and which resulted in the doctrine of evolution。 The genetic principle； progressive development； general laws； the significance of time； the conception of society as an organic aggregate； the metaphysical theory of history as the self…evolution of spirit；all these ideas show that historical inquiry had been advancing independently on somewhat parallel lines to the sciences of nature。 It was necessary to bring this out in order to appreciate the influence of Darwinism。
12。 In the course of the dozen years which elapsed between the appearances of 〃The Origin of Species〃 （observe that the first volume of Buckle's work was published just two years before） and of 〃The Desce