按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
挥斜臼氯シ伞Ｓ心芰θ〉梦榷ǖ氖找妫共换岽砉蟛ǘ馐浅墒斓谋曛尽Ｄ憧梢宰杂傻厝〉媚阆胍模挥霉芷渌摹＠竽勘昕梢园镏愎乖煲桓瞿忝挥械幕肪场Ｓ猛ǖ揽矶劝俜直鹊姆椒扑阕约旱某杉āＤ惚匦敫约捍蚍郑庋胖滥愕乃健�
Early in your trading career； it is safer to concentrate on swings。 As your level of expertise rises； allocate a portion of your capital to trading trends。 Major trends offer spectacular profit opportunities … the big money is in big moves。 You owe it to yourself to learn to trade them。 Concentrate on quality； and money will follow。
在你交易生涯的早期，比较安全的方法是专注于波段。当你的水平和经验增加时，分配部分的资金去做趋势交易。大趋势会提供惊人的利润机会——大钱在大趋势中。你要自己学会如何交易。专注于质量，钱就会流进来。
Options
期权
The number of shares in any pany is fixed； but options are created out of thin air by writers responding to buyers’ demand。 An option buyer hopes that the price will get to his target fast enough； and the writer sells him that hope。 Most hopes never get fulfilled； but people keep hoping and buying options。 Fund managers； floor traders； and exchange members sell hope by the truckload to amateurs who buy calls in bull markets and puts in bear markets。
公司的股份是固定的，但是发行期权的人可以根据买家的需要制造更多的期权。期权买家希望价格能尽快到达目标，发行期权的人则卖给他这个希望。大部分希望都不会实现，但是人们继续保有希望，就继续买期权。基金经理，场内交易者，交易所会员都把希望卖给业余选手，业余选手在上涨时买看涨期权，在下跌时买看跌期权。
A call gives its holder a right； but not an obligation； to buy a certain quantity of a specified security at a specified price at a specified time。 It is a bet on a price increase。 A put is a right； but not an obligation； to sell a certain quantity of a specified security at a specified price at a specified time。 It is a bet on a price drop。
看涨期权给持有人一个权利，但不是义务，在规定的时间，规定的价格，买入规定数量的证券。它是赌价格上涨。看跌期权给持有人一个权利，但不是义务，在规定的时间，规定的价格，卖出规定数量的证券。它是赌价格下跌。
Each option has an exercise price （also called strike price）。 If a stock fails to reach that price before the exercise date； the option expires worthless and the buyer loses what he paid； meanwhile； the writer keeps his loot； the polite name of which is option premium。 To profit from buying or shorting stocks； you must pick the right stock and the right direction。 An option buyer’s job is much harder because in addition to that he must bet on how fast the stock will get to his level。
期权都有一个执行价格（也叫行权价）。如果在行权日到达前股票没有到达行权价，期权就作废了，买家花的钱就没了。同时，发行期权的人继续保留他收到的钱，美其名曰期权费。通过买入或做空股票赚钱，你必须选择正确的股票和正确的方向。期权买家的工作很艰难，因为不但要赌对方向，还要赌对股票何时到达行权价。
An option is at…the…money when the current price of the underlying security equals the exercise price。
只有价格到达行权价才有钱赚。
A call is out…of…the…money when the current price of the underlying security is below the exercise price。 A put is out…of…the…money when the current price of the underlying is above the exercise price。 The farther out…of…the…money； the cheaper the option。
如果市价低于行权价，看涨期权不值钱。如果市价高于行权价，看跌期权不值钱。越是不值钱，期权就越便宜。
A call is in…the…money when the current price of the underlying security is above the exercise price。 A put is in…the…money when the current price of the underlying is below the exercise price。
当市价高于行权价，看涨期权就值钱。当市价低于行权价，看跌期权就值钱。
An option can be at…the…money； out…of…the…money； or in…the…money at different times in its life； as the price of the underlying security changes。 The price of every option has two ponents： intrinsic value and time value。
一个期权在存续期间可以值钱，可以不值钱，也可以有时值钱，因为证券的价格在变。每个期权都有2个因素：内在价值和时间价值。
An option’s intrinsic value is above zero only when it’s in…the…money。 If the exercise price of a call is 80； and the underlying security rises to 83； the intrinsic value is 3。 If the security is at or below 80； the intrinsic value of that call is zero。
当期权值钱时，它的内在价值才大于0。如果一个看涨期权的行权价是80，标的证券涨到了83，它的内在价值就是3。如果证券低于80，内在价值就是0。
The other ponent of each option’s price is time value。 If the stock trades at 74 and people pay 2 for an 80 call； the entire 2 represents time value。 If the stock rises to 83； and the price of the call jumps to 4； 3 of that is intrinsic value （83 … 80）； while 1 is time value （the hope that this stock will rise even higher during the life of that option）。
期权的另外一个因素是价格的时间价值。如果股票的价格是74元，人们花2元买行权价为80元的看涨期权，这2元代表了时间价值。如果股票涨到了83元，看涨期权的价格涨到了4元，3元就是内在价值（83…80），1元是时间价值（希望在存续期内，股票会涨的更高）。
Option price depends on several factors：
期权价格受几个因素影响：
The farther out…of…the…money； the cheaper the option … the underlying security must travel a longer distance to make it worth anything before it expires。
期权越不值钱，就越便宜——标的证券要在期权作废前跑很长的距离。
The closer the expiration day； the cheaper the option … it has less time to fulfill the hope。 The speed with which an option loses value is called time decay； which bees steeper as the expiration nears。
离到期日越近，期权越便宜——没有时间完成任务了。期权失去价值的速度叫时间衰减，越接近到期日，衰减越快。
The less volatile the underlying security； the cheaper the option； because the chance of that security making a large move is lower。
标的证券的波动性越小，期权越便宜，因为证券大波动的机会就小了。
Other factors influencing the price of an option include the current level of interest rates and the dividend rate of the underlying stock。
其它影响期权价格的因素还包括利率，证券的分红情况。
When a stock trades at 100； a 110 call is worth more that a 120 call because that stock is more likely to rise to 110 than to 120。 A stock is more likely to rise to 110 in five months than in two； making a longer call more valuable。 Finally； if two stocks are selling for 100； but one has moved 50 so far this year while the other has moved only 30； then a 110 call for the more volatile stock is likely to be priced higher。
股票的市价是100，行权价为110的看涨期权比行权价为120的看涨期权要值钱，因为股票价格很可能到110，到120的机会小。一只股票在5个月涨到110的概率比2个月大，这样长期的看涨期权就值钱。最后，如果2只股票的市价都是100，但是一只今年波动了50，而另一只只波动了30，那么行权价为110标的股票波动性大的看涨期权价格高。
Different factors of option pricing may clash and partially cancel each other out。 For example； if a market drops sharply； reducing the value of calls； the increase in volatility will lift option values； and the calls may lose less value than expected。 There are several mathematical models； such as Black…Scholes； widely described in options literature； to determine what is called a fair value of an option。
不同的因素之间也许会互相抵消一部分。比如，如果市场下跌厉害，降低了看涨期权的价值，波动行的增加提升了期权的价值，那么也许看涨期权的价值比预期跌的少。有几个数学模型，比如很多期权书都谈到的“黑色休闲”，就决定了什么是公平的价值。
The simplest option strategy is to buy them。 That’s what beginners do； especially buying calls when they cannot afford to buy stocks。 They miss the fact that options are more plex than stocks and someone who can’t make money in stocks is doomed in options。 A more sophisticated strategy involves writing； or selling； options。 A writer may be either covered or naked。
最简单的期权策略就是买入。新手就这么做，如果买不起股票，他们就买看涨期权。
Covered writers own the underlying securities。 For example； a fund may hold IBM stock and sell calls against them； figuring that if the stock does not reach its exercise price and the options expire worthless； they’ll pocket the extra ine。 If IBM rises to the exercise price and their option is called； they’ll sell their stock at a profit； use the money to buy another； and sell calls against it。 Covered writing was very profitable in the early years of exchange…traded options。 By now the field is very crowded； and the returns have shrunk。 Naked writing； to be reviewed later involves selling options without owning the underlying securities； with writers backing up what they sell only with cash in their accounts。
发行持有标的期权的人拥有标的证券。比如，一个基金持有IBM股票，并卖出关于这个股票的看涨期权，希望股票的价格不到到达行权价，这样期权就作废了，他们就有了额外收入。如果IBM涨到了行权价，他们就卖出股票获得利润，用这个钱买其它的股票，再卖其它股票的看涨期权。在早年的交易所交易中，这种发行持有标的期权的办法很赚钱。现在做这个的人太多了，回报没那么多了。发行不持有标的期权，我们后面会谈，这个方法是在不持有标的证券的前提下卖期权，发行人仅仅用账户的钱做保证。
The above was a brief summary of option terms。 To learn more； please turn to the literature on options； listed at the end of this chapter。 Just watch out for the books that promise a “simple strategy for tripling your money in a year； working 15 minutes a day； with no math。” People who make money in options tend to be mathematically savvy and highly capitalized； the exact opposite of an av