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走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第56章

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 again。 Trading them is like infantry fighting … 90% sheer boredom and 10% sheer terror。
你可以在股票,期货和外汇市场找到好的流动性和波动性。日内交易市场的另一个重要特征就是它的个性。一些市场波动平静,其它市场喜欢蹦跳。比如债券,1,2天在狭窄的区间,然后爆发,在半个多小时波动了很多,然后又平静了。交易它们就像是步兵打仗——90%的无聊和10%的恐惧。
What markets should you day…trade? In stocks; look at those that show up on the list of the most active issues of the day。 That’s where the action is。 These stocks’ liquidity is very high; and their volatility tends to be good。 Explore the list of top gainers and losers for the day。 When the same name shows up on that list day in and day out; it is clearly among the most volatile issues; with great day…trading potential。
你应该在哪个市场做日内交易?在股市,寻找当日最活跃的股票,这就是波动所在。这些股票的流动性很高,它们的波动性很好。寻找当天最赚的和最亏的。如果同样的股票多次出现,很显然它是最具有波动性的,具有日内交易的潜力。
When it es to futures; make your first steps in such relatively peaceful markets as corn; sugar; or copper。 Once you’ve learned the ropes; consider moving up to stock index futures or the futures on the German Bund; both among the favorite vehicles of professional day…traders。
当谈到期货时,开始在相对平静的市场交易,比如玉米,白糖,铜。一旦你学会了规则,可以考虑换到股指期货,或者是德国债券期货,这两个都是专业日内交易者最喜欢的市场。
Analysis and Decision Making
分析和决策
If you remove price and time markings from a chart; you won’t be able to tell whether it is weekly; daily; or intraday。 Markets are fractal; to borrow a term from chaos theory。 To recall our earlier discussion; the seashore is fractal; since the coastline looks equally jagged from any height。 Since charts in different timeframes are so alike; we may analyze them using similar methods。
如果你把图表的价格和时间去掉,你分不清是周线图,还是日线图或日内图。市场是分形,借用了混沌理论。回忆之前我们谈论的内容,海岸是分形,因为无论从哪个高度看,海岸线都是锯齿装的。因为每个时间周期的图表也相似,我们也许可以用类似的方法来分析。
ing to day…trading after a year or more of successful position trading gives you a great advantage。 You can use the same methods; and only have to speed them up。 You can use the principles of Triple Screen to make strategic decisions on longer…term charts and tactical choices on shorter…term charts。
当1年或多年后,你的仓位交易取得了优势再做日内交易。你可以用同样的方法,仅仅是加快速度。你可以用三重滤网的原则做策略决定,把长期图表的战术选择用在短期图表上。
SCREEN ONE
第一重滤网
Analyze your market on a longer…term chart; using trend…following indicators; and make a strategic decision to trade long; short; or stand aside。
用长期图表分析市场,用趋势跟踪指标,然后做策略决定,做多,做空或观望。
Choose the timeframe you prefer to trade and call it intermediate。 Let us select a five…minute chart for our intermediate timeframe; with each bar representing five minutes of trading。 You can choose a longer chart if you wish; but not much shorter; as that might pit you against institutional scalpers。 To stand pletely apart from the crowd; you may select an unorthodox length; such as seven or nine minutes。
选择你喜欢的时间周期,称为中周期。让我们把5分钟图作为中周期,每个竹线代表5分钟。如果你愿意你可以选择更长的图表,但不要太短,太短的周期容易让你被机构剥头皮。要想远离大众,你可以选择不常用的长度,比如7分钟或9分钟。


Figure 6。3 Day…Trading … 25…Minute Chart
图6。3 日内交易——25分钟图
If we prefer a five…minute chart for day…trading; we should start our analysis with a timeframe that is five times longer; a 25…minute chart。 Different stocks go in and of out of favor with day…traders。 Human Genome Sciences (HGSI) is popular today; with strong; healthy trends and no gaps。 There is a downtrend on Monday; which bottoms out on Tuesday; turns up on Wednesday; and rises into Friday; with a pullback at the end of that day as longs take profits before the weekend。
如果我们喜欢5分钟图做日内交易,我们应该分析更长的时间周期25分钟图。日内交易者进出不同股票。人类基因科学股票现在很火,上涨强势,健康,没有缺口。周一下跌,周二到底,周三上涨,上涨到周五,当天发生了回调,最好兑现利润。
There is a strong buy signal right at the opening on Wednesday as the EMA turns up; confirmed by the uptick of MACD…Histogram。 As EMA keeps rising; it tells us to trade HGSI from the long side; the first screen of Triple Screen is bullish。 This signal is much more important than any uptick or downtick of MACD…Histogram。 When MACD rises in gear with the EMA; it suggests trading larger size; but when it declines; it is a perfectly normal “breathing” behavior; as long as there is no bearish divergence。
周三开盘时有强烈的买入信号,均线上涨,MACD柱的上涨也确认了。当均线上涨时,它告诉我们要做多人类基因科学,三重滤网的第一重滤网看涨。这个信号比MACD柱的任何上涨或下跌都重要。当MACD和均线同时上涨,它建议仓位要大,但是当它下跌时,它只是完美的正常的“喘气”,因为此时并没有看跌背离。
At the right edge of the chart the market is closing for the weekend。 The EMA is slightly rising; so bulls have to be given the benefit of doubt。 Also; MACD…Histogram has declined to the level normally associated with bottoms; it is closer to a bottom than to a top。 We should wait for the opening on Monday; anticipating a buy signal; while being prepared to trade from the short side if the EMA ticks down。
在图的右边收市过周末。均线有点上涨,所以多头有点担心。同时MACD柱也跌到了底部的低水平,它离底部近,不是离顶部近。我们应该等周一开盘,期待出现买入信号,也好做好准备,当均线下跌时要做空。
Some day…traders; intoxicated by the promise of technology; use one…minute or even tick charts。 These provide the illusion that you are present on the floor; even though it can easily take half a minute or longer for the data to be keyed in; uploaded to the satellite; and broadcast to your screen。 You are not on the floor; you are behind。 When markets begin to run; time lags get even worse。
一些交易者,被技术的承诺陶醉,使用1分钟图,甚至基点图。它们给你制造了幻觉,让你以为自己在场内,而实际上数据从键盘输入,上传到卫星,再传输到你的屏幕就需要半分钟或更长时间。你不在场内,你就落后了。当市场运行时,时间延后更严重。
Multiply your intermediate timeframe by five to find the long…term timeframe。 If your intermediate timeframe is five minutes; use a 25…minute chart。 If your software does not allow plotting 25…minute charts; round it off to half an hour。 A successful trader needs to stand apart from the crowd。 This is why it pays to use unmon parameters for charts and indicators。 There are probably thousands of people using half…hourly charts; but only a tiny minority uses 25…minute charts and gets its signals a little faster。
把你的中周期乘以5倍,找到长期周期。如果你的中周期是5分钟,那么用25分钟图。如果你的软件不能画25分钟图,可以四舍五入到30分钟图。成功的交易者需要远离大众,所以不要在图表和指标上面使用常用的参数。有几千人在使用30分钟图,但只有少数的人使用25分钟图,这样可以快速得到信号。
Apply a trend…following indicator to the long…term chart and use its direction to make a strategic decision to trade long; short; or stand aside。 Start with a 20… or 30…bar EMA and adjust its length until it tracks your market with a minimum of whipsaws。 When the 25…minute EMA rises; it identifies an uptrend and tells you to trade from the long side or stand aside。 When the EMA falls; it identifies a downtrend and tells you to trade only from the short side or stand aside。 Make a strategic decision on this long…term chart before returning to your intermediate…term charts。
把趋势跟踪指标用在长期图表上,跟踪它的方向做策略决定,做多,做空或观望。从20或30分钟均线开始调试,直到所使用的参数形成的锯齿最少。当25分钟均线上涨时,它确认了上涨,告诉你要做多或观望。当均线下跌时,它确认了下跌,告诉你要做空或观望。在你回到中周期前,先在长期周期图上做好策略决定。
Successful day…traders tend to rely less on indicators and more on chart patterns。 The gaps between trading days can distort intraday indicators。 Still; some indicators; such as moving averages and envelopes; also called channels; are useful even with intraday charts。
成功的日内交易者一般很少依靠指标,更多是依靠图表模式。日线图上的缺口会影响日内图。然而一些指标,比如均线和包络线,也叫通道,对日内图是有用的。
SCREEN TWO
第二重滤网
Return to the intermediate (five…minute) charts to look for entries in the direction of the trend。
回到中周期(5分钟)图,沿着趋势的方向找进场点。
Plot a 22…bar EMA on the five…minute chart and draw a channel that contains about 95% of price action。 Moving averages reflect the average consensus of value; while channels show the normal limits of bullishness and bearishness。 We want to get long during uptrends; buying below the EMA on a five…minute chart; and short in downtrends; above the EMA。 Do not get long above the upper channel line; where the market is overvalued; or sell short below the lower channel line; where it is undervalued。
在5分钟图上画参数为22的均线,然后画一个通道,通道能包含95%的价格波动。均线反映了价值认同的平均值,这样通道表明了多头和空头的正常极限。我们想在上涨时做多,在5分钟图中低于均线的地方买入;在下跌趋势做空,在均线上做空。不要在通道上线附近做多,此时市场被超买;不要在通道下线做空,此时是超卖。
Use oscillators; such as MACD…Histogram and Force Index; to identify overbought and oversold
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