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走进我的交易室 中英对照版-第43章

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在我的图表里没有改变。这让我想起了我在船上打工时的一个好朋友。他是我遇见的最大的走私犯,但是他从不隐藏什么。有时海关人员在场,他也把走私品放在桌上。公布秘密就是最好的隐藏秘密。
Force Index helps identify turning points in any market by tying together three essential pieces of information … the direction of price movement; its extent; and volume。 Price represents the consensus of value among market participants。 Volume reflects their level of mitment; financial as well as emotional。 Price reflects what people think; and volume what they feel。 Force Index links mass opinion with mass emotion by asking three questions: Is the price going up or down? How big is the change? How much volume did it take to move the price? 
力量指数可以在任何市场帮助确认反转点,它同时运用3个关键的信息——价格波动的方向,波动的幅度和成交量。价格代表了市场参与者对价值的一致认同。成交量代表了他们决心大小,既是金钱上的,也是情绪上的。价格反映了人们的想法,计算他们的感觉。力量指数利用3个问题来联系大众的思想和情绪。这3个问题是,价格是涨还是跌?变化有多大?需要多大的成交量才能改变价格?
It is very useful to measure the force of a move because strong moves are more likely to continue than weak ones。 Divergences between peaks and bottoms of prices and Force Index help nail important turning points。 Spikes of Force Index identify zones of mass hysteria; where trends bee exhausted。 Here is the Force Index formula:
计算波动的力量是很有用的,因为大波动总是比小波动能持续下去。价格顶低和力量指数的背离能帮助找到重要的反转点。力量指数的针能确认大众的疯狂区域,那时趋势开始枯竭。下面是力量指数的公式:
Force Index = (Closetoday … Closeyesterday) · Volumetoday
力量指数=(今天的收盘价-昨天的收盘价)×今天的成交量
If the market closes higher today than yesterday; Force Index is positive; and if it closes lower; Force Index is negative。 The greater the spread between today’s and yesterday’s closes; the greater the force。 The higher the volume; the more forceful the move。
如果今天的收盘价比昨天高,力量指数是正的,如果比昨天低,力量指数是负的。差值越大,力量越大。成交量越大,波动越强。
Force Index is greater when the market moves far on high volume and lesser when the market moves a short distance on thin volume。 When the market closes unchanged; Force Index equals zero。
当波动大,成交量高时,力量指数就大;当波动小,成交量小时,力量指数就小。如果市场的收盘价不变,力量指数就是零。
Smooth Is Better We can plot Force Index as a histogram; with positive readings above the zero line and negative readings below。 The raw Force Index looks very jagged; up one day; down the next。 It works better if we smooth it with an exponential moving average and plot it as a line。
平滑比较好 我们可以把力量指数画成柱状图,正数在0轴以上,负数在0轴以下。原始的力量指数看起来像锯齿,涨一天,跌一天。如果我们用指数平滑均线并把它画成线,那么就更好用了。
If we smooth Force Index with a long…term EMA of 13 days or longer; it will measure long…term shifts in the balance of power between bulls and bears。 To help pinpoint entries and exits; we should smooth Force Index with a very short moving average; such as a two…day EMA。
如果我们用13日或者更长的均线来平滑力量指数,它可以计算长期多头和空头的力量均衡。为了帮助找到进场点和出场点,我们应该用很短的均线来平滑力量指数,比如2日均线。
When the trend of our stock or future is up and the two…day EMA of Force Index declines below zero; it gives a buy signal。 When the trend is down and the two…day EMA of Force Index rallies above zero; it gives a sell signal。
当股票或期货的趋势是上涨的,2日均线力量指数下跌到0以下,它给出了买入信号。当趋势是下跌的,2日均线力量指数上涨到0以上,它给出了卖出信号。
The key to using a short…term Force Index is to bine it with a trend… following indicator。 For example; when the 22…day EMA of price is up and the two…day EMA of Force Index bees negative; it reveals a short…term splash of bearishness within an uptrend; a buying opportunity。 Once long; you have several exit strategies。 If you’re very short…term oriented; sell the day after Force Index turns positive; but if your time horizon is wider; hold until prices hit their channel line or the EMA turns flat。
使用力量指数的关键是配合趋势跟踪指标。比如,当22日均线的价格上涨,2日均线力量指数变成负数,它表明了在上涨时多头的崩溃,是买入时机。一旦做多,你要有几个出场策略。如果你是做短线,当力量指数变正数是卖掉,但是如果你的持有时间长,当价格碰到通道线再卖,或者是均线走平时卖。


Figure 5。11 Force Index … Two…Day EMA
图5。11 力量指数——2日均线
Spikes of a short…term; two…bar Force Index mark areas where trends exhaust themselves。 The downward spike in area A showed that the move from 56 to 43 was at its end。 Curiously enough; it was immediately followed by an upward spike in area B。 This pattern of two adjacent spikes; pointing in opposite directions; shows a great deal of confusion in the markets and is usually followed by a period of flat prices。 GE remained flat for almost two months following those two opposing spikes。
短期的指针,力量指数的2日线表明了趋势在哪里。区域A的下跌指针表明从56到43的下跌结束了。奇怪地,区域B的指针立刻出现了。这种模式,相邻的2个指针,指着相反的方向,表明市场很混乱,通常后面就是横盘。在2个指针之后,通用电子股票差不多横盘了2个月。
Technical patterns confirm one another when they give similar messages。 The downward spike in area C showed that the downtrend was being exhausted。 That bullish signal was followed by a bullish divergence between prices and Force Index; which traced a series of higher bottoms while prices tried to grind lower。 For fans of classical charting; there was a “reverse head…and…shoulders” pattern。 Finally; there was a kangaroo tail at the very low。 It looks as if GE keeps ringing a bell and telling us that the decline is over; it is ready to go up! In area D; half…way through the rise from 37 to 53; Force Index starts tracing a bearish divergence; warning that bulls are losing power。 When the EMA follows this up by turning down in May; the bullish game is over。 It is the last good chance to take profits and position short。
当不同的技术模式发出相似的信息时,它们会互相确认。C区的指针表明下跌快到头了。这个多头信号后是价格和力量指数的看涨背离,当价格下跌时,跟踪到了一系列更高的底部。对于经典的画图迷来说,这是头肩顶反转模式。最后,在很低的地方出现了袋鼠尾巴。看起来通用电子好像在摇铃告诉我们下跌结束了,要开始上涨了!在区域D,从37涨到53的半路上,力量指数跟踪到了看跌背离,警告多头失去了力量。当5月份均线跟上来反转时,多头的游戏结束了。这是最后的兑现利润和做空的位置。
At the right edge of the chart the EMA is down and prices have just fallen to a new low; but Force Index is starting to trace a bullish divergence。 It tells you to tighten stops on short positions。
在图的右边,均线下跌,价格跌到新低,但是力量指数开始跟踪到看涨背离。它告诉要做好空头仓位的止损。
When the 22…day EMA of prices is down; and the two…day EMA of Force Index rallies above zero; it reveals a short…term splash of bullishness within a downtrend; a shorting opportunity。 If you’re very short…term oriented; grab a quick profit and cover the day after Force Index turns negative。 If your time horizon is wider; use the lower channel wall for the profit target。
当22日均线下跌时,2日均线力量指数上涨到0以上,它表明下跌时多头失败,是做空的时机。如果你是做短线,在力量指数变负数时快速兑现利润。如果你做长线,利用下面的通道边缘作为利润目标。
When the two…day EMA of Force Index spikes up or down; exceeding its normal peaks or lows by several times; it identifies an exhaustion move … a signal to take profits on existing positions。
当2日均线力量指数指针向上或向下,多次超过过去的顶或底,它确认了波动的耗竭——是兑现利润的信号。
When the trend is up and the two…day EMA of Force Index traces a sharp upward spike; eight or more times above its normal height for the past two months; it marks a buying panic。 The bulls are afraid of missing the train and bears feel trapped and cover shorts at any cost。 Such spikes tend to occur during end…stages of bull moves。 They tell you it is a good time to take profits on long positions。 Prices often rally to retest the spike day’s high。 By then the spirit is gone from the rally and other indicators start developing bearish divergences; warning of a trend reversal。
当趋势上涨,2日均线力量指数跟踪到上涨的指针,在过去2个月中,有8次或以上的次数在正常高度以上,这表明了买入的疯狂。多头害怕错过了火车,空头害怕被陷害,不管任何成本地回补空头仓位。这样的指针在多头的末期会出现。他们告诉你现在是兑现多头仓位利润的时候。价格经常会再次测试指针那天的高度。当上涨不再出现,其它指标开始出现看跌背离,这是警告趋势要反转了。
When the two…day EMA of Force Index traces a sharp downward spike during a downtrend; four or more times deeper than normal for the past two months; it marks an hysterical stage of the downmove。 It identifies a selling panic among the bulls; who are dumping their holdings at any price to get out。 Such spikes tend to occur at the end…stages of bear moves。 They tell you that it’s a good time to take profits on short positions。 Prices sometimes retest the spike day’s low; but by then most indicators are developing bullish divergences and an upside reversal is ing。
当2日均线力量指数跟踪到下跌趋势下跌的指针,过去2个月有4次或更多的次数比正常状态还低,它表明下跌的疯狂。它确认了多头卖出疯狂,他们不计成本地卖出自己的仓位。这样的指针发生在下跌波动的末期
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