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They had been either shrunken or eliminated to add another lane for automobiles and
buses。 The only biking I did there was on the stationary exercise bike in our hotel；
which was a good antidote for having to spend so much time sitting in cars stuck in
Beijing traffic jams。 I was in Beijing to attend an international business conference；
and while there I discovered why all the bikes had disappeared。 According to one
speaker at the conference； some thirty thousand new cars were being added to the roads
in Beijing every month…one thousand new cars a day！ I found that statistic so
unbelievable that I asked Michael Zhao； a young researcher in the Times's Beijing
bureau； to double…check it； and he wrote me back the following e…mail：
Hi Tom； Hope this email finds you well。 On your question about how many cars are added
each day in Beijing； I did some research
on the Internet and found that。 。 。 car sales in ＇Beijing＇ for April 2004 were 43；000
…24。1％ more than same period lastyear。 So that is 1；433 cars added ＇daily＇ to Beijing；
but including secondhand car sales。 New car sales this month were 30；000； or 1；000
cars each day added to the city。 The total car sales from Jan。 to April 2004 were
165；000； that is about 1；375 cars added each day to Beijing over this period。 This
data is from the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce。 The city's bureau of statistics
has it that the total car sales in 2003 were 407；649； or 1；117 cars each day added。
The new car sales last year were 292；858； or 802 new cars each day 。 。。 The total
number of cars in Beijing is 2。1 million 。 。 。 But the recent months seem to have
witnessed surging sales。 Also noteworthy is last year's SARS outbreak； during which
period a lot of families bought cars； due to panic about public contact and a sort
of doomsday…stimulated enjoy…life mentality。 And many new car owners did enjoy their
time driving； as the traffic in the city so much improved with a lot of people
voluntarily caged at home； without daring to go out。 Since then； coupled with dropping
car prices due to China's commitment to reduce tariffs after joining the WTO； a large
number of families have advanced their timetable of buying a car； although some others
decided to wait for further drops of prices。 All the best； Michael。
As Michael's note indicated； you can see China's middle class rising right before
your eyes； and it is going to have enormous energy and environmental spillover。 The
Great Chinese Dream； like the Great Indian Dream； the Great Russian Dream； and the
Great American Dream； is built around a high…energy； high…electricity；
high…bent…metal lifestyle。 To put it another way； the thirty thousand new cars a month
in Beijing； and the cloud of haze that envelops the city on so many days； and the
fact that the city's official Web site actually keeps track of 〃blue sky〃 days all
testify to the environmental destruction that could arise from the triple
convergence…if clean alternative renewable energies are not developed soon。 Already；
according to the World Bank； sixteen of the twenty most polluted cities in the world
are in China； and that pollution and environ409
mental degradation together cost China 170 billion a year （The Economist； August
21； 2004）。
And we have not seen anything yet。 China； with its own oil and gas reserves； was once
a net exporter。 Not anymore。 In 2003 China surged ahead of Japan as the second largest
importer of oil in the world； after the United States。 Right now about 700 to 800
million of China's 1。3 billion people live in the countryside； but they are heading
for the flat world； and roughly half are expected to try to migrate to the cities
over the next two decades； if they can find work。 This will spur a huge surge in demand
for cars； houses； steel beams； power plants； school buildings； sewage plants；
electricity grids…the energy implications of which are unprecedented in the history
of Planet Earth； round or flat。
At the business conference I was attending in Beijing； I kept hearing references to
the Strait of Malacca…the narrow passage between Malaysia and Indonesia that is
patrolled by the U。S。 Navy and controls all the oil tanker traffic from the Middle
East to China and Japan。 I hadn't heard anyone talking about the Strait of Malacca
since the 1970s oil crises。 But evidently Chinese strategic planners have begun to
grow increasingly concerned that the United States could choke off China's economy
at any time by just closing the Strait of Malacca； and this threat is now being
increasingly and openly discussed in Chinese military circles。 It is just a small
hint of the potential struggle for power…energy power…that could ensue if the Great
American Dream and the Great Chinese Dream and the Great Indian Dream and the Great
Russian Dream come to be seen as mutually exclusive in energy terms。
China's foreign policy today consists of two things： preventing Taiwan from becoming
independent and searching for oil。 China is now obsessed with acquiring secure oil
supplies from countries that would not retaliate against China if it invaded Taiwan；
and this is driving China to get cozy with some of the worst regimes in the world。
The Islamic fundamentalist government in Sudan now supplies China with 7 percent of
its oil supplies and China has invested 3 billion in oil drilling infrastructure
there。
In September 2004； China threatened to veto a move by the United Nations to impose
sanctions on Sudan for the genocide that it is perpetrat410
ing in its Darfur province。 China followed by opposing any move to refer Iran's obvious
attempts todevelop nuclear…weapons…grade fuelto the United Nations Security Council。
Iran supplies 13 percent of China's oil supplies。 Meanwhile； as the Daily Telegraph
reported （November 19； 2004）； China has begun drilling for gas in the East China Sea；
just west of the line that Japan regards as its border： 〃Japan protested； to no avail；
that the project should be a joint one。 The two are also set to clash over Russia's
oil wealth。 China is furious that Japan has outbid it in their battle to determine
the route of the pipeline that Russia intends to build to the Far East。〃 At the same
time it was reported that a Chinese nuclear submarine had accidentally strayed into
Japanese territorial waters。 The Chinese government apologized for the 〃technical
error。〃 If you believe that； I have an oil well in Hawaii I would like to sell you 。。。
In 2004； China began competing with the United States for oil exploration
opportunities in Canada and Venezuela。 If China has its way； it will stick a straw
into Canada and Venezuela and suck out every drop of oil； which will have the side
effect of making America more dependent on Saudi Arabia。
I interviewed the Japanese manager of a major U。S。 multinational that was
headquartered in Dalian； in northeastern China。 〃China is following the path of Japan
and Korea；〃 said the executive； on the condition that he and his company not be quoted
by name； 〃and the big question is； Can the world afford to have 1。3 billion people
following that path and driving the same cars and using the same amount of energy？
So I see the flattening； but the challenge of the twenty…first century is； Are we
going to hit another oil crisis？ The oil crisis in the 1970s coincided with Japan
and Europe rising。 ＇There was a time＇ when the U。S。 was the only big consumer of oil；
but when Japan and Europe came in； OPEC got the power。 But when China and India come
into being the consumers； it will be a huge challenge that is an order of magnitude
different。 It is megapolitics。 The limits of growth in the 1970s were overcome with
technology。 We got smarter than before； equipment became more efficient； and energy
consumption per head was lower。 But now ＇with China； India； and Russia all coming
on strong＇ it is multiplied by a factor of ten。 There is something
we really need to be serious about。 We cannot restrict China； ＇Russia；＇ and India。
They will grow and they must grow。〃
One thing we will not be able to do is tell young Indians； Russians； Poles； or Chinese
that just when they are arriving on the leveled playing field； they have to hold back
and consume less for the greater global good。 While giving a talk to students at the
Beijing College of Foreign Affairs； I spoke about the most important issues that could
threaten global stability； including the competition for oil and other energy
resources that would naturally occur as China； India； and the former Soviet Union
began to consume more oil。 No sooner did I finish than a young Chinese woman student
shot up her hand and asked basically the following question： 〃Why should China have
to restrain its energy consumption and worry about the environment； when America and
Europe got to consume all they energy they wanted when they were developing？〃 I did
not have a good answer。 China isa high…pride country。 TellingChina； India； and Russia
to consume less could have the same geopolitical impact that the world's inability
to accommodate a rising Japan and Germany had after World War I。
If curre