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that China has become the hare and Mexico has not； even though Mexico seemed to start
with so many more natural advantages when the world went flat。 Why？
This is a question Mexicans themselves are asking。 When you go to Mexico City these
days； Mexicans will tell you that they are hearing that
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〃giant sucking sound〃 in stereo。 〃We are caught between India and China；〃 Jorge
Castaneda； Mexico's former foreign minister； told me in 2004。 〃It is very difficult
for us to compete with the Chinese； except with high…value…added industries。 Where
we should be competing； the services area； we are hit by the Indians with their back
offices and call centers。〃
No doubt China is benefiting to some degree from the fact that it still has an
authoritarian system that can steamroll vested interests and archaic practices。
Beijing's leadership can order many reforms from the top down； whether it is a new
road or accession to the World Trade Organization。 But China today also has better
intangibles…an ability to summon and focus local energies on reform retail。 China
may be an authoritarian state； but it nevertheless has strong state institutions and
a bureaucracy that manages to promote a lot of people on merit to key decision…making
positions； and it has a certain public…spiritedness。 The Mandarin tradition of
promoting bureaucrats who see their role as promoting and protecting the interests
of the state is still alive and well in China。 〃China has a tradition of meritocracy…a
tradition that is also carried on in Korea and Japan；〃 said Francis Fukuyama； author
of the classic The End of History and the Last Man。 〃All of them also have a basic
sense of'stateness' where ＇public servants＇ are expected to look to the long…term
interests of the state〃 and are rewarded by the system for doing so。
Mexico； by contrast； moved during the 1990s from a basically one…party authoritarian
state to a multiparty democracy。 So just when Mexico needs to summon all its will
and energy for reform retail on the micro level； it has to go through the much slower；
albeit more legitimate； democratic process of constituency building。 In other words；
any Mexican president who wants to make changes has to aggregate so many more interest
groups…like herding cats…to implement a reform than his autocratic predecessors； who
could have done it by fiat。 A lot of these interest groups； whether unions or oligarchs；
have powerful vested interests in the status quo and the power to strangle reforms。
And Mexico's state system； like that of so many of its Latin American neighbors； has
a long history of simply being an instrument of patronage for the ruling party or
local interests； not the national interest。
Another of these intangible things is how much your culture prizes
education。 India and China both have a long tradition of parents telling their
children that the greatest thing they can be in life is an engineer or a doctor。 But
building the schools to make that happen in Mexico simply has not been done。 India
and China each have more than fifty thousand students studying in the United States
today。 They come from about twelve time zones away。 Mexico； which is smaller but right
next door； has only about ten thousand。 Mexico is also right next door to the world's
biggest economy； which speaks English。 But Mexico has not launched any crash program
in English education or invested in scholarships to send large numbers of Mexican
students to the United States to study。 There is a 〃disconnect；〃 said President
Zedillo； among Mexico's political establishment； the challenges of globalization；
and the degree to which anyone is educating and harnessing the Mexican public to this
task。 You would have to look a long time for a graduate science or math program at
an American university that is dominated by Mexican students the way most are
dominated by Chinese and Indian students。
The government of President Vicente Fox had set out five areas for reform retail to
make the Mexican economy more productive and flexible： labor market reform to make
it easier to hire and fire workers； judicial reform to make Mexico's courts less
corrupt and capricious； electoral and constitutional reform to rationalize politics；
tax collection reform to increase the country's dismal tax harvest； and energy reform
to open the energy and electricity markets to foreign investors so that Mexico； a
major oil producer； gets out of the crazy bind of importing some natural gas and
gasoline from America。 But almost all of these initiatives got stalled in the Mexican
parliament。
It would be easy to conclude from just looking at Mexico and China that democracy
may be a hindrance to reform retail。 I think it is premature to conclude that。 I think
the real issue is leadership。 There are democracies that are blessed with leaders
who are able to make the sale and get their people focused on reform retail…Margaret
Thatcher in England comes to mind…and there are democracies that drift for a long
time without biting the bullet…modern Germany； for example。 There are autocracies
that really get focused…modern China…and there are others that just drift aimlessly；
unwilling really to summon their people
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because the leaders are so illegitimate they are afraid of inflicting any
pain…Zimbabwe。
Mexico and Latin America generally have 〃fantastic potential；〃 says President Zedillo。
〃Latin America was ahead of everyone thirty years ago； but for twenty…five years we
have been basically stagnant and the others are moving closer and well ahead。 Our
political systems are not capable of processing and adopting and executing those
＇reform retail＇ ideas。 We are still discussing prehistory。 Things that are taken for
granted everywhere we are still discussing as if we are living in the 1960s。 To this
day you cannot speak openly about a market economy in Latin America。〃 China is moving
every month； added Zedillo； 〃and we are taking years and years to decide on elementary
reforms whose needs should be strikingly urgent for any human being。 We are not
competitive because we don't have infrastructure； you need people to pay taxes。 How
many new highways have been built connecting Mexico with the U。S。 since NAFTA？
＇Virtually none。＇ Many people who would benefit from government expenditure don't
pay taxes。 The only way for government to serve is get people to pay higher taxes；
＇but＇ then the populism comes up and kills it。〃
A Mexican newspaper recently ran a story abouthow theConverse shoe company was making
tennis shoes in China using Mexican glue。 〃The whole article was about why are we
giving them our glue；〃 said Zedillo； 〃when the right attitude would be how much more
glue can we sell them？ We still need to break some mental barriers。〃
It is not that Mexico has failed to modernize its export industries。 It is losing
ground to China primarily because China has changed even faster and more broadly；
particularly in educating knowledge workers。 As business consultant Daniel H。 Rosen
pointed out in an essay in The International Economy journal （Spring 2003）； Mexico
and China both saw their share of global exports grow in many of the same areas during
the booming 1990s…from auto parts to electronics to toys and sporting goods…but
China's share was growing faster。 This was not just because of what China was doing
right but because of what Mexico was doing wrong； which was not steadily honing its
competitiveness with micro…reforms。 What Mexico succeeded in doing was creating
islands of competitiveness； like Monterrey； where it got things right and could take
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advantage of proximity to the United States； but the Mexican government never had
a strategy for melting those islands into the rest of the country。 This helps explain
why from 1996 to 2002； Mexico's ranking in the Global Competitiveness Report actually
fell while China's rose。 And this was not just about cheap wages； said Rosen。 It was
about China's advantages in education； privatization； infrastructure； quality
control； mid…level management； and the introduction of new technology。
〃So China is eating Mexico's lunch；〃 concluded Rosen； 〃but more due to the Mexican
inability to capitalize on successes and induce broader reform than to China's lower
wage workers per se。〃 In other words； it's reform retail； stupid。 According to the
Doing Business in 200S report； it takes an average of fifty…eight days to start a
business in Mexico； compared with eight in Singapore and nine in Turkey。 It takes
seventy…four days to register a property in Mexico； but only twelve in the United
States。 Mexico's corporate income tax rate of 34 percent is twice as high as China's。
The McKinsey Quarterly report 〃Beyond Cheap Labor〃 noted that since 2000； as China
joined the WTO and started to take advantage of the flattening of the world； Mexico
lost 270；000 assembly jobs； and hundreds of factories closed。 But the main advice
the report had for Mexico and other middle…income countries feeling squeezed by China
was this： 〃Rather than fixating on jobs lost to China； these countries should remember