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I think I may say； without assuming too much； that our Grotius
celebration has been a contribution of some value to this growth
of earnestness。 It has； if I am not greatly mistaken； revealed to
the conference； still more clearly than before； the fact that it
is a historical body intrusted with a matter of vast importance
and difficulty； and that we shall be judged in history with
reference to this fact。
July 6。
At 5。30 P。M。 off in special train with the entire conference to
Amsterdam。 On arriving； we found a long train of court carriages
which took us to the palace； the houses on each side throughout
the entire distance being decorated with flags and banners； and
the streets crowded with men； women； and children。 We were indeed
a brave show； since all of us； except the members of our American
delegation； wore gorgeous uniforms with no end of ribbons； stars；
and insignia of various offices and orders。
On reaching our destination； we were received by the Queen and
Queen…mother； and shortly afterward went in to dinner。 With the
possible exception of a lord mayor's feast at the Guildhall； it
was the most imposing thing of the kind that I have ever seen。
The great banqueting…hall； dating from the glorious days of the
Dutch Republic； is probably the largest and most sumptuous in
continental Europe； and the table furniture； decorations； and
dinner were worthy of it。 About two hundred and fifty persons；
including all the members of the conference and the higher
officials of the kingdom； sat down； the Queen and Queen…mother at
the head of the table； and about them the ambassadors and
presidents of delegations。 My own place； being very near the
Majesties； gave me an excellent opportunity to see and hear
everything。 Toward the close of the banquet the young Queen arose
and addressed us； so easily and naturally that I should have
supposed her speech extemporaneous had I not seen her consulting
her manuscript just before rising。 Her manner was perfect； and
her voice so clear as to be heard by every one in the hall。
Everything considered； it was a remarkable effort for a young
lady of seventeen。 At its close an excellent reply was made by
our president； M。 de Staal； and soon afterward； when we had
passed into the great gallery； there came an even more striking
exhibition of the powers of her youthful Majesty； for she
conversed with every member of the conference； and with the
utmost ease and simplicity。 To me she returned thanks for the
Grotius tribute； and in very cordial terms； as did later also the
Queen…mother； and I cannot but believe that they were sincere；
since； three months later； at the festival given them at Potsdam；
they both renewed their acknowledgments in a cordial way which
showed that their patriotic hearts were pleased。 Various leading
men of the Netherlands and of the conference also thanked us； and
one of them said； 〃You Americans have taught us a lesson； for；
instead of a mere display of fireworks to the rabble of a single
city； or a ball or concert to a few officials； you have； in this
solemn recognition of Grotius； paid the highest compliment
possible to the entire people of the Netherlands； past； present；
and to come。〃
July 7。
In the morning to the great hall of the 〃House in the Wood；〃
where the 〃editing committee〃 （comite de redaction） reported to
the third committee of the conference the whole arbitration plan。
It struck me most favorably； indeed； it surprised me； though I
have kept watch of every step。 I am convinced that it is better
than any of the plans originally submitted； not excepting our
own。 It will certainly be a gain to the world。
At the close of the session we adjourned until Monday； the 17th；
in order that the delegates may get instructions from their
various governments regarding the signing of the protocols；
agreements； etc。
July 8。
In the evening dined with M。 de Mier； the Mexican minister at
Paris and delegate here； and had a very interesting talk with M。
Raffalovitch； to whom I spoke plainly regarding the only road to
disarmament。 I told him that he must know as well as any one that
there is a vague dread throughout Europe of the enormous growth
of Russia； and that he must acknowledge that； whether just or
not； it is perfectly natural。 He acquiesced in this； and I then
went on to say that the Emperor Nicholas had before him an
opportunity to do more good and make a nobler reputation than any
other czar had ever done； not excepting Alexander II with his
emancipation of the serfs； that I had thought very seriously of
writing； at the close of the conference； to M。 Pobedonostzeff；
presenting to him the reasons why Russia might well make a
practical beginning of disarmament by dismissing to their homes；
or placing on public works； say two hundred thousand of her
soldiers； that this would leave her all the soldiers she needs；
and more； that he must know； as everybody knows； that no other
power dreams of attacking Russia or dares to do so； that there
would be no disadvantage in such a dismissal of troops to
peaceful avocations； but every advantage； and that if it were
done the result would be that； in less than forty years； Russia
would become； by this husbanding of her resources； the most
powerful nation on the eastern continent； and able to carry out
any just policy which she might desire。 I might have added that
one advantage of such a reduction would certainly be less
inclination by the war party at St。 Petersburg to plunge into
military adventures。 （Had Russia thus reduced her army she would
never have sunk into the condition in which she finds herself now
（1905）； as I revise these lines。 Instead of sending Alexeieff to
make war； she would have allowed De Witte to make peacepeace on
a basis of justice to Japan； and a winter access to the Pacific；
under proper safeguards； for herself。）
Raffalovitch seemed to acquiesce fully in my view； except as to
the number of soldiers to be released； saying that fifty or sixty
thousand would do perfectly well as showing that Russia is in
earnest。
He is one of the younger men of Russia； but has very decided
ability； and this he has shown not only in his secretaryship of
the conference； but in several of his works on financial and
other public questions published in Paris； which have secured for
him a corresponding membership of the French Institute。
It is absolutely clear in my mind that； if anything is to be done
toward disarmament； a practical beginning must be made by the
Czar； but the unfortunate thing is that with； no doubt； fairly
good intentions； he is weak and ill informed。 The dreadful
mistake he is making in violating the oath sworn by his
predecessors and himself to Finland is the result of this
weakness and ignorance； and should he attempt to diminish his
overgrown army he would； in all probability； be overborne by the
military people about him； and by petty difficulties which they
would suggest； or； if necessary； create。 It must be confessed
that there is one danger in any attempted disarmament； and this
is that the military clique might； to prevent it； plunge the
empire into a war。
The Emperor is surrounded mainly by inferior men。 Under the shade
of autocracy men of independent strength rarely flourish。 Indeed；
I find that the opinion regarding Russian statesmen which I
formed in Russia is confirmed by old diplomatists； of the best
judgment； whom I meet here。 One of them said to me the other day：
〃There is no greater twaddle than all the talk about far…seeing
purposes and measures by Russian statesmen。 They are generally
weak； influenced by minor； and especially by personal；
considerations； and inferior to most men in similar positions in
the other great governments of Europe。 The chancellor； Prince
Gortchakoff； of whom so much has been said； was a weak； vain man；
whom Bismarck found it generally very easy to deal with。〃
As to my own experience； I think many of those whom I saw were
far from the best of their kind with whom I have had to do。 I
have never imagined a human being in the position of minister of
the interior of a great nation so utterly futile as the person
who held that place at St。 Petersburg in my time； and the same
may be said of several others whom I met there in h