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conclusions： Neither are philosophers themselves； who； in
all the active parts of life； are； in the main； the same
with the vulgar； and are governed by the same maxims。 Nature
must have provided some other principle； of more ready； and
more general use and application； nor can an operation of
such immense consequence in life； as that of inferring
effects from causes； be trusted to the uncertain process of
reasoning and argumentation。 Were this doubtful with regard
to men； it seems to admit of no question with regard to the
brute creation； and the conclusion being once firmly
established in the one； we have a strong presumption； from
all the rules of analogy； that it ought to be universally
admitted； without any exception or reserve。 It is custom
alone； which engages animals； from every object； that
strikes their senses； to infer its usual attendant； and
carries their imagination； from the appearance of the one；
to conceive the other； in that particular manner； which we
denominate 。 No other explication can be given of
this operation； in all the higher； as well as lower classes
of sensitive beings； which fall under our notice and
observation。＇24＇
But though animals learn many parts of their knowledge
from observation； there are also many parts of it； which
they derive from the original hand of nature； which much
exceed the share of capacity they possess on ordinary
occasions； and in which they improve； little or nothing； by
the longest practice and experience。 These we denominate
I/NSTINCTS； and are so apt to admire as something very
extraordinary； and inexplicable by all the disquisitions of
human understanding。 But our wonder will； perhaps； cease or
diminish； when we consider； that the experimental reasoning
itself； which we possess in common with beasts； and on which
the whole conduct of life depends； is nothing but a species
of instinct or mechanical power； that acts in us unknown to
ourselves； and in its chief operations； is not directed by
any such relations or comparisons of ideas； as are the
proper objects of our intellectual faculties。 Though the
instinct be different； yet still it is an instinct； which
teaches a man to avoid the fire； as much as that； which
teaches a bird； with such exactness； the art of incubation；
and the whole economy and order of its nursery。
* * * *
SECTION X。
Of Miracles。
PART I。
T/HERE is； in Dr。 T/ILLOTSON'S writings； an argument
against the ； which is as concise； and
elegant； and strong as any argument can possibly be supposed
against a doctrine； so little worthy of a serious
refutation。 It is acknowledged on all hands； says that
learned prelate； that the authority； either of the scripture
or of tradition； is founded merely in the testimony of the
Apostles； who were eye…witnesses to those miracles of our
Saviour； by which he proved his divine mission。 Our
evidence； then； for； the truth of the religion
is less than the evidence for the truth of our senses；
because； even in the first authors of our religion； it was
no greater； and it is evident it must diminish in passing
from them to their disciples； nor can any one rest such
confidence in their testimony； as in the immediate object of
his senses。 But a weaker evidence can never destroy a
stronger； and therefore； were the doctrine of the real
presence ever so clearly revealed in scripture； it were
directly contrary to the rules of just reasoning to give our
assent to it。 It contradicts sense； though both the
scripture and tradition； on which it is supposed to be
built； carry not such evidence with them as sense； when they
are considered merely as external evidences； and are not
brought home to every one's breast； by the immediate
operation of the Holy Spirit。
Nothing is so convenient as a decisive argument of this
kind； which must at least the most arrogant
bigotry and superstition； and free us from their impertinent
solicitations。 I flatter myself； that I have discovered an
argument of a like nature； which； if just； will； with the
wise and learned； be an everlasting check to all kinds of
superstitious delusion； and consequently； will be useful as
long as the world endures。 For so long； I presume； will the
accounts of miracles and prodigies be found in all history；
sacred and profane。
Though experience be our only guide in reasoning
concerning matters of fact； it must be acknowledged； that
this guide is not altogether infallible； but in some cases
is apt to lead us into errors。 One； who in our climate；
should expect better weather in any week of J/UNE than in
one of D/ECEMBER； would reason justly； and conformably to
experience； but it is certain； that he may happen； in the
event； to find himself mistaken。 However； we may observe；
that； in such a case； he would have no cause to complain of
experience； because it commonly informs us beforehand of the
uncertainty； by that contrariety of events； which we may
learn from a diligent observation。 All effects follow not
with like certainty from their supposed causes。 Some events
are found； in all countries and all ages； to have been
constantly conjoined together： Others are found to have been
more variable； and sometimes to disappoint our expectations；
so that； in our reasonings concerning matter of fact； there
are all imaginable degrees of assurance； from the highest
certainty to the lowest species of moral evidence。
A wise man； therefore； proportions his belief to the
evidence。 In such conclusions as are founded on an
infallible experience； he expects the event with the last
degree of assurance； and regards his past experience as a
full of the future existence of that event。 In other
cases； he proceeds with more caution： He weighs the opposite
experiments： He considers which side is supported by the
greater number of experiments： To that side he inclines；
with doubt and hesitation； and when at last he fixes his
judgement； the evidence exceeds not what we properly call
。 All probability； then； supposes an opposition
of experiments and observations； where the one side is found
to overbalance the other； and to produce a degree of
evidence； proportioned to the superiority。 A hundred
instances or experiments on one side； and fifty on another；
afford a doubtful expectation of any event； though a hundred
uniform experiments； with only one that is contradictory；
reasonably beget a pretty strong degree of assurance。 In all
cases； we must balance the opposite experiments； where they
are opposite； and deduct the smaller number from the
greater； in order to know the exact force of the superior
evidence。
To apply these principles to a particular instance； we
may observe； that there is no species of reasoning more
common； more useful； and even necessary to human life； than
that which is derived from the testimony of men； and the
reports of eye… witnesses and spectators。 This species of
reasoning； perhaps； one may deny to be founded on the
relation of cause and effect。 I shall not dispute about a
word。 It will be sufficient to observe that our assurance in
any argument of this kind is derived from no other principle
than our observation of the veracity of human testimony； and
of the usual conformity of facts to the reports of
witnesses。 It being a general maxim； that no objects have
any discoverable connexion together； and that all the
inferences； which we can draw from one to another； are
founded merely on our experience of their constant and
regular conjunction； it is evident； that we ought not to
make an exception to this maxim in favour of human
testimony； whose connexion with any event seems； in itself；
as little necessary as any other。 Were not the memory
tenacious to a certain degree； had not men commonly an
inclination to truth and a principle of probity； were they
not sensible to shame； when detected in a falsehood： Were
not these； I say； discovered by to be
qualities； inherent in human nature； we should never repose
the least confidence in human testimony。 A man delirious； or
noted for falsehood and villainy； has no manner of authority
with us。
And as the evidence； derived from witnesses and human
testimony； is founded on past experience； so it varies with
the experience； and is regarded either as a or a
； according as the conjunction between any
particular kind of report and any kind of object has been
found to be constant or variable。 There are a number of
circumstances to be taken into consideration in all
judgements of this kind； and the ultimate standard； by which
we determine all disputes； that may arise concerning them；
is always derived from experience and observation。 Where
this experience is not entirely uniform on any side； it is
attended with an unavoidable contrariety in our judgements；
and with the same opposition and mutual destruction of
argument as in every other kind of evidence。 We frequently
hesitate concerning the reports